Is Nike's "Write the Future" really this World Cup's Sports Illustrated cover jinx?

CAPE TOWN, South Africa - Nike would suggest its Write the Future video campaign has been everything it set out to be -- creating a buzz on the Internet and in social media circles from its launch in May -- but that hasn't stopped pundits from suggesting it is the Sports Illustrated cover jinx of this 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa.

The talk is easy because every one of the primary players featured in Write the Future is out of action at the World Cup as the final four nations line up for their semifinals in Cape Town tonight (overwhelming local favourite Holland, ranked fourth in the FIFA world rankings, against cinderella Uruguay, #16) and Durban Wednesday (#2 ranked Spain and #6 Germany).

With Didier Drogba of Cote d'Ivoire, Franck Ribery of France and Fabio Cannavaro of Italy (all in the Group Stage) and Tim Howard and Landon Donovan of the US, Wayne Rooney of England and Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal (all in the Round of 16) on the sidelines after just 18 of 30 days of play, there's no doubt Nike's Write the Future could have benefitted from at least one or two of its heroes reaching the global media platform that is the final week of the World Cup, with at least two matches guaranteed for those four surviving teams.

Only Write the Future's Spanish stars -- Gerard Pique, Andres Iniesta and Cesc Fabregas -- are left standing in South Africa. Patrice Evra of France and Brazilian Thiago Silva had minor roles in the Internet campaign while Ronaldhino of Brazil and Theo Walcott of England did not even make the cut of their respective national teams (cursed before they even started?).

Upon further video review -- so to speak -- like any company marketing personal endorsements and guest spots, Nike was only playing the averages. Three of 14 Nike-sponsored athletes making the last week of the World Cup is 21.4%, actually not bad when one considers they had about 960 players to choose from going into South Africa and only 120 -- or 12.5% -- are still in contention for the big prize.

It's true the Spaniards giving Nike its one-fifth success rate to date were secondary to the starring roles played by the Drogbas, Rooneys and Ronaldos in Write the Future and it's also true that Spanish success means more to Adidas, which holds that country's national team shirt and gear rights.

Yet Adidas' own campaign, The Quest, has similar numbers, with four of its 22 players -- or 18.1% -- reaching the final four. It's just under 20% in success rate if you don't include the injured Michael Ballack of Germany, originally cast as one of Adidas' big three alongside Argentine superstar Lionel Messi and Kaka of Brazil.

Like Nike, Adidas saw many of its personal endorsements fall in the Group stage (including Yoann Gourcoff of France, Daniele de Rossi of Italy, Stanislav Sestak of Slovakia and Zlatko Dedic of Slovenia) and Round of 16 (Shunsuke Nakamura of Japan, Jozy Altidore of the US and Steven Gerrard of England).

Their big gun Messi -- understandably the front man among active players in The Quest campaign -- made it to the quarter-finals, leaving Adidas with strong vested interests in Germany and Spain in general and Bastian Schweinsteiger and David Villa in particular. Nike has more to gain with the Dutch advancing to the final, but Adidas will be pleased to see Surinamese-born Holland star Eljero Elia there as well, along with Adidas-endorsed Diego Forlan, who plays for Puma-sponsored Uruguay and has been an absolute stud in South Africa.

The bottom line is that any personal endorsement campaign carries performance risk. But Write the Future is no more a Sports Illustrated jinx than is The Quest. At least technically-speaking, in the 20% ballpark, they've actually both outperformed the law of averages that has only 12.5% of this World Cup's original rosters living to see the light of the final week.

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Brazil's quarter-final loss at the World Cup hurts both Nike and Adidas in the footwear wars

CAPE TOWN, South Africa - Some of the best sport business storylines at mega events such as the biggest of them all, the FIFA World Cup, revolve around the marketing wars being fought out among many of the planet's most powerful brands.

At the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, there is arguably no more expensive battle - with no stakes higher - than in the shoe and apparel category.

It's on that front where both Adidas (the FIFA Global Partner, official World Cup event sponsor and official supplier to 12 of the 32 national teams in South Africa) and Nike (the sponsor of world #1 Brazil and eight other countries) have invested hundreds of millions in sponsorships, endorsements, television advertising, internet campaigns and retail activation.

Adidas spent $200 M US on the FIFA World Cup sponsorship alone, another $100 M US on national team rights and what I'd estimate as another $300 M or more in advertising. Between the two footwear giants, they're spending in the range of $1 B US in total marketing around their event campaigns.

Throw in Nike-owned UMBRO and its England sponsorship, along with Puma and its sponsorship of seven national teams -- including four African entries -- and the shoe wars are big business well into 10 figures.

Nike -- which leads the overall shoe business market share sweepstakes with around 38% to Adidas' 34% -- struck first and hard with its Write the Future video campaign while Adidas countered a few weeks closer to the month-long tournament with its Star Wars-themed hero series entitled The Quest.

They've both had wins and losses along the way but it would appear Nike's advertising investment has run the shorter course with every one of the primary individual players featured in Write the Future out of action at the World Cup...with the event's biggest week still to come.

When Brazil fell 2-1 in Friday's quarter-final against the Netherlands, both Nike and Adidas shared the grief. That's because Nike supplies the Brazilian national team, while Adidas sponsors one if its biggest stars; Kaka, a headliner in its global campaign around the World Cup.

Nike loses more directly as its marquee team is out before the final week for the second consecutive World Cup. The only consolation for the U.S. company is that Brazil's loss came at the hands of The Netherlands, with the Oranje also wearing Nike and giving the Swoosh one team in the final four (alongside Germany and Spain of Adidas and Uruguay of Puma).

Yet on the Brazil loss, Adidas is not unscathed, partly because it gives Nike a stronger European foothold in the Oranje. Adidas is hurt with The Quest star Kaka out and because its official World Cup presence and television signage could very well be seen by less eyeballs worldwide. Brazil draws more than just Brazilians to the World Cup party and what hurts World Cup ratings hurts Adidas as an official FIFA partner.

It's an interesting case study around sponsoring giants. Brazil is the world's #1 soccer team and as such, has the cache - both collectively and through its individual players - to attract more than one global brand in any one category.

When such a giant falls, it falls hard...and in a case like this, the giant takes more than one sponsor with it.

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Stepping into the world of soccer

In what I remember to be only the third Canada Day which I haven't spent in either Montreal, Toronto or Vancouver, I've stepped off the North American continent and into the world of soccer.

En route to Cape Town, South Africa, for a special edition of The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca this Saturday, July 3rd, I don't have to be more than half my way there to already understand how big that world of soccer really is...and how front and centre soccer is pretty well everywhere but in the North America we share with the United States.

I saw it in my stopover at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, which like much of the Netherlands is painted orange during the month-long global party known as the 2010 FIFA World Cup. There are images of Dutch star Arjen Robben everywhere as the Dutch prepare to face Brazil in what should be an oustanding quarter-final match at Nelson Mandela Bay in Port Elizabeth tomorrow night. 

I saw it yesterday on Emirates flight #146, where in-flight entertainment options included Round of 16 matches featuring Paraguay-Japan and Spain-Portugal. Of course, the official airline of the World Cup was also promoting its sponsorship with FIFA logos on its in-flight magazine and in departure lounges.

Yet I saw it more than I expected when that Boeing 777 landed at 12:15 a.m. Dubai time for an early start to my Canada Day.

I'm more than familiar with how the United Arab Emirates is striving to define its place on the world stage by working to host big events in big venues with big ambitions, in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi. It's a big sport business story, slowed somewhat by the global economic recession and debt crunch of the past two years, but certainly far from stopped.

I get the emerging connection between this part of the world and soccer through Manchester City of the Barclays English Premier League, given ownership of that club by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi. I understand that's why a new annual scholarship program for four Emirati players to train at City is front page news in The National, the newspaper published by Abu Dhabi Media Company. It's no surprise that full page tabloid space is accorded the upcoming transfer of Spanish national David Silva from Valencia to none other than Sheikh Mansour's Manchester City.

I was surprised, however, to see the extent of attention today in Dubai on what was happening this historic month in South Africa.

It's one thing to see it loud and proud in Amsterdam, where the Dutch are not only among the 32 nations to qualify for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, they're living up to their contender status by reaching the fever pitch of the quarter-finals. The UAE nor any other Arab nation made it to South Africa. Despite that, it is everywhere here, from hotel bars and restaurants theming their menus around the teams du jour to video boards with result updates and airport signage promoting Dubai's own World Cup bid for 2022.

It's just a valuable reminder about the weight the global game carries. It has always played sports king in Europe, but it is also the prevailing national passion in South America, Africa and increasingly so in Asia. It is in the top three in Australia and Oceania alongside rugby and cricket.

It is only in North America where it does not hold that kind of podium status outside of those with strong connections to soccer through their heritage and roots elsewhere...and that's true in both the U.S. and Canada.

Nothing will challenge hockey as the sport which most defines us, at least for this generation and likely the next and the next after that. Same goes for the U.S. and the sport culture it has built around football, baseball and basketball.

What stands out to me on this Canada Day 2010, however, is that two things are clearly happening: Canada is becoming a bigger place through immigration and the status of cities such as Vancouver as Pacific Gateways and the world is becoming a smaller place through technology, internet and social media.

With those trends, the global game has made -- and is making -- inroads in both Canada and the U.S. and I believe it will continue to gain traction among future generations of Canadians and Americans. Without the club system inherent in Europe, it will be baby steps, but steps nonetheless to share in the global currency that is soccer.

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