Thursday, April 22, 2010

Early ouster by NHL Devils shows again that late-season hired guns rarely pay off

Lou Lamoriello is a smart hockey man whose career track record of Stanley Cup championships in 1995, 2000 and 2003 speaks for itself.

Yet on the night Lamoriello's New Jersey Devils suffered a disappointing 4-1 eastern conference quarter-final loss at the hands of the underdog Philadelphia Flyers, it has to be said his penchant for late-season shake-ups has failed to pay off once again.

This time, landing prized unrestricted free agent Ilya Kovalchuk from the Atlanta Thrashers did not give the Devils the extra bump Lamoriello was looking for in the NHL's 2010 Stanley Cup tournament, where New Jersey was among the favourites going in.

It's true the Devils' CEO, president and general manager has been more predisposed to coaching changes than big trade deadline deals. Three years ago, Lamoriello fired his head coach Claude Julien with just three games left in the 2006-'07 regular season, despite having the Devils in second place in the eastern conference. Lamoriello was hoping to repeat the magic of 2000, when he dismissed Robbie Ftorek with eight games left, took over behind the bench and led New Jersey to its second Stanley Cup.

The difference between late-season coaching changes and late-season player rentals, however, is the cost. Firings cost what's remaining on the employment contract (and some goodwill). Incoming player rentals, on the other hand, don't come without tangible player assets and/or draft picks going the other way.

In this case, Lamoriello pulled the trigger just before the NHL's 2010 trade deadline, acquiring Kovalchuk in exchange for Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, prospect Patrice Cormier and -- here's the biggie -- New Jersey's 2010 first-round draft pick. That is potentially a very big price to pay for 20 games in the Meadowlands.

It's not that Kovalchuk failed to produce offence for the second-seeded Devils against the seventh-seeded Flyers; he did, with six points in five games. The question is did he make the Devils a better team than they already were? After years of being conditioned to do so in Atlanta, did Kovalchuk try to do too much himself? Most important, what did he do to the chemistry of New Jersey in a heavily-structured, team-oriented culture?

Those are the smaller questions now. The bigger question for the balance of the post-season will be where Kovalchuk plays next season. Will Lamoriello and the Devils have anything to show for the high first-rounder they gave up to get the Russian star? Or will he choose to sign with the Los Angeles Kings or another more offensive-oriented, free-wheeling team?

The big sport business question is, however, whether such late-season deals make sense in the salary cap era of the NHL, where building through the draft and player development seems to be the right formula.

Sure, you get the odd year like 2008 where a hired gun like Marian Hossa will get the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Stanley Cup final (and then leave) or a Brad Richards will drive the Dallas Stars to the western conference finals (and stay for the longer term).

The odds are that Kovalchuk will be like most late-season player rentals in the NHL (or any sport for that matter). Just ask his trading partner on the Kovalchuk deal, Atlanta GM Don Waddell, who in 2007 sent four draft picks to St. Louis to get Keith Tkachuk (for a few weeks) and Braydon Coburn to Philadelphia for Alexei Zhitnik. Or Calgary Flames' general manager Daryl Sutter, who sent two players and his first round draft pick last year to get Olli Jokinen.

Late-season shake-ups of coaches and players are high risk. The Kovalchuk case is yet another example of one that is also low reward.

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