The talk is easy because every one of the primary players featured in Write the Future is out of action at the World Cup as the final four nations line up for their semifinals in Cape Town tonight (overwhelming local favourite Holland, ranked fourth in the FIFA world rankings, against cinderella Uruguay, #16) and Durban Wednesday (#2 ranked Spain and #6 Germany).
With Didier Drogba of Cote d'Ivoire, Franck Ribery of France and Fabio Cannavaro of Italy (all in the Group Stage) and Tim Howard and Landon Donovan of the US, Wayne Rooney of England and Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal (all in the Round of 16) on the sidelines after just 18 of 30 days of play, there's no doubt Nike's Write the Future could have benefitted from at least one or two of its heroes reaching the global media platform that is the final week of the World Cup, with at least two matches guaranteed for those four surviving teams.
Only Write the Future's Spanish stars -- Gerard Pique, Andres Iniesta and Cesc Fabregas -- are left standing in South Africa. Patrice Evra of France and Brazilian Thiago Silva had minor roles in the Internet campaign while Ronaldhino of Brazil and Theo Walcott of England did not even make the cut of their respective national teams (cursed before they even started?).
Upon further video review -- so to speak -- like any company marketing personal endorsements and guest spots, Nike was only playing the averages. Three of 14 Nike-sponsored athletes making the last week of the World Cup is 21.4%, actually not bad when one considers they had about 960 players to choose from going into South Africa and only 120 -- or 12.5% -- are still in contention for the big prize.
It's true the Spaniards giving Nike its one-fifth success rate to date were secondary to the starring roles played by the Drogbas, Rooneys and Ronaldos in Write the Future and it's also true that Spanish success means more to Adidas, which holds that country's national team shirt and gear rights.
Yet Adidas' own campaign, The Quest, has similar numbers, with four of its 22 players -- or 18.1% -- reaching the final four. It's just under 20% in success rate if you don't include the injured Michael Ballack of Germany, originally cast as one of Adidas' big three alongside Argentine superstar Lionel Messi and Kaka of Brazil.
Like Nike, Adidas saw many of its personal endorsements fall in the Group stage (including Yoann Gourcoff of France, Daniele de Rossi of Italy, Stanislav Sestak of Slovakia and Zlatko Dedic of Slovenia) and Round of 16 (Shunsuke Nakamura of Japan, Jozy Altidore of the US and Steven Gerrard of England).
Their big gun Messi -- understandably the front man among active players in The Quest campaign -- made it to the quarter-finals, leaving Adidas with strong vested interests in Germany and Spain in general and Bastian Schweinsteiger and David Villa in particular. Nike has more to gain with the Dutch advancing to the final, but Adidas will be pleased to see Surinamese-born Holland star Eljero Elia there as well, along with Adidas-endorsed Diego Forlan, who plays for Puma-sponsored Uruguay and has been an absolute stud in South Africa.
The bottom line is that any personal endorsement campaign carries performance risk. But Write the Future is no more a Sports Illustrated jinx than is The Quest. At least technically-speaking, in the 20% ballpark, they've actually both outperformed the law of averages that has only 12.5% of this World Cup's original rosters living to see the light of the final week.
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