NHL shows gains but NBA still wins 2010 television sweepstakes

Having game 5 of the NHL's 2010 Stanley Cup finals go up against game 2 of the NBA Finals Sunday night might have been unfortunate scheduling for both leagues and their fans but it did offer up a great chance to compare hockey apples with basketball oranges, so to speak, when it comes to television drawing power in North America.

Among the findings that stick with me are that NBA basketball is almost as popular among Americans as NHL hockey is to Canadians, at least when it comes to this spring's match-ups between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals and the Chicago Blackhawks and the Philadelphia Flyers in the Stanley Cup.

The head-to-head showdown showed that on a per capita basis, Canadians are this year 5.75 times as likely to watch Stanley Cup championship hockey than those living south of the border. It also demonstrated that Americans outwatch -- again per capita -- Canadians by 5.43 to 1 when it comes to NBA Finals basketball.

On this given Sunday, the NHL outscored the NBA on Canadian television by a 13:1 margin. In the U.S., however, the NBA beat the NHL by a ratio of 2.66:1 (approaching threefold). Hoops also won the continental battle by a margin of almost 60 per cent, with 16.0 million North Americans watching the Celtics beat the Lakers and 9.7 million tuning in to see Chicago move to within one game of its first Stanley Cup in 49 years (which the Blackhawks clinched in overtime tonight to win in six games).

The television scorecard Sunday looked like this...

                               NBA                              NHL
                               LA/Boston                                Chicago/Philadelphia
                               Game 2                                     Game 5


North America      16.0 million viewers         9.7 million viewers


United States        15.7 million viewers         5.9 million viewers
                              ESPN on ABC                             NBC

Canada                  291 thousand viewers     3.8 million viewers
                              TSN                                            CBC/RDS

The head-to-head comparison is particularly interesting in the U.S., where four of the top eight television markets in the country are directly engaged in the Stanley Cup and NBA Finals. This year's NHL and NBA championship series span the second-largest media market in the country, LA (5.7 million television households), #3 Chicago (3.5 million) and #4 Philadelphia (2.9 million), along with #8 Boston (2.4 million).

Sunday continued to show how heavily the NHL relies on the strength of its local markets when it comes to U.S. television ratings, with more than a third of those Americans tuning into Game 5 of the Stanley Cup final coming from either champion Chicago (where local market shares hit 40%) or Philly (almost 30%).

The New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls could theoretically drive larger combined local audiences if they found a way to return to the NBA Finals, but for ESPN on ABC, there is no stronger match-up in terms of national television interest than the NBA's two heritage brands, the Celtics and Lakers.

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Brendan Shanahan proves to be a solid PR asset for the National Hockey League

Strong communications skills and media capabilities have become increasingly important over the past 10 to 15 years for senior executives in general and Chief Executive Officers in particular. That's true in mainstream business but it's arguably even more the case in the business of sport, where the relationship between consumers (fans) and product or company (franchises or leagues) is unique.

In most cases in the regular private sector, only shareholders feel a vested interest in the company in which they own stock. There are some corporations whose products command a higher brand of loyalty and connection (Apple comes to mind) but few if any can compare to the "equity" that fans take in their favourite club or league.

The hard core fans feel a sense of ownership in their team. They care about their favourite league. The best franchises and leagues get that and relate to their fans and their larger audiences as if they are a public trust or a community asset.

After 17 years on the job, however, National Hockey League commissioner Gary Bettman has yet to crack the code on public and media relations. Specifically, he has not mastered any sense of relating to hockey fans through television.

How badly he wrestles with the media in general was so brutally on display in his CBC television appearance with Hockey Night in Canada host Ron MacLean last week. Maybe too much time in the sun that day was the problem, but it was one of the poorest television performances by a professional sport commissioner I've ever seen.

Bettman on Hockey Night in Canada June 2nd, 2010: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww3md8DvoTY

Bettman was alternatively defensive and prickly, even in the studios of the television network that pays more for NHL rights than any other carrier in the world. He was clearly annoyed with MacLean and a line of questioning that focused on ownership troubles in a variety of NHL markets, most notably those in the U.S. sunbelt, instead of what he was hoping would highlight the terrific overall economic performance of the league.

OK. I would have encouraged MacLean to acknowledge the NHL is having record financial results in spite of the basket cases in the southern U.S. and simply raise the matter of what could be if those problem childs were replaced by teams in northern U.S. markets and in Canada, which has never been more bullish for the NHL and which is driving in a big way the league's overall success.

That being said, it's unfathomable to me that Bettman handled the CBC piece the way he did and that he is so bad at media and public speaking despite almost two decades in the commissioner's chair.

Thankfully for the NHL, it has some other emerging executive assets who could help strengthen the league's brand as they grow into their roles and gain more exposure in front of the camera. None is more obvious and more well-equipped to do so than NHL vice-president of business and hockey development, former star player Brendan Shanahan.

Shanahan's interview last night on Hockey Night in Canada was as good as Bettman's was bad earlier in the week. The Stanley Cup champion and surefire Hall of Famer was open, courteous, insightful and even humourous. The contrasts between the two interviews -- and how they reflected the NHL they were each representing -- could not have been bigger.

Shanahan on Hockey Night in Canada June 6th, 2010: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAFl89kgzMo

Shanahan was a prototype power forward in his years with the Hartford Whalers, St. Louis Blues, New Jersey Devils, Detroit Red Wings and New York Rangers.

Sunday night's interview reminded us how well he handles the public side of the business and how much value he could bring to the table for the NHL as its own power forward in media relations and television.

It also laid bare how weak Bettman is on the same fronts and how difficult it will be for the league's frontman to change his stripes when he clearly does not enjoy that part of his role as NHL commissioner. The right strategy for the NHL -- especially with a new round of collective bargaining upcoming -- would be to showcase the likes of Shanahan every opportunity it gets.

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Quebec Flyers, BC Blackhawks and Canada Sharks each have their merits, but only Montreal Canadiens register economic impact in Canada

The San Jose Sharks have more Canadians on their roster than any of the four teams remaining in the National Hockey League's 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs.


The Chicago Blackhawks have the biggest bevy of British Columbians while the Philadelphia Flyers boast the most Quebeckers.

Yet despite having fewer Canadians than the Canada Sharks and fewer Quebecois than the Quebec Flyers, only the Montreal Canadiens have a macro economic impact on their city, their province and, by extension, their country.

Nine unanswered goals in a 2-0 series lead might suggest the Flyers will limit the number of home games left in Montreal, but the Canadiens will drive box office revenues of more than $5.5 million per game night at the Bell Centre after earning $25 million in ticket receipts from their seven-game series miracles over the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins.

Add a half-million dollars in concession and merchandise sales per game and you have a winfall not only for the Habs, but for their official suppliers, licensees and the federal and provincial tax agencies.

Each televised game fills restaurants, pubs and brasseries in Montreal; each home game moreso. The beer flows and wings fly at sports bars throughout Quebec and across Canada, expanding the economic impact beyond the confines of the second largest city in the country.

The buzz is also economically palpable for CBC and RDS, who are generally doubling their audience numbers on the strength of having a Canadian team in the conference finals. When a combined average audience of more than six million Canadians watch Hockey Night in Canada and RDS -- almost one of every five Canadians -- it's good for those broadcast companies. Radio rights holders glean similar upside.

More eyeballs and ears following a Canadian team in the final four also means -- at least theoretically -- more returns on investment for domestic advertising sponsors such as Scotiabank, Tim Hortons and Golf Town.

So whatever your take is on what makes a local franchise take on national team status or whether the Montreal Canadiens have any right to your spring allegiance, make no mistake that they are the only team left registering an impact on the Canadian economy.

The Sharks, Flyers and the Blackhawks have varying degrees of fan equity in Canada, but love them or hate them, only the success of the Canadiens on and off the ice makes a tangible, financial difference for Canadians, Canadian broadcasters and other Canadian companies.

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Vancouver 2010 a factor in strong television ratings for Stanley Cup playoffs

The parity that drove strong television ratings throughout the 2009-'10 National Hockey League regular season has found expression in the post-season, which included 49 games in the first round (with seven of eight series going at least six games).

Twelve overtime games helped produce great ratings for Versus and NBC south of the border and for TSN, RDS and CBC here in Canada.

The NHL numbers for round one of the 2010 Stanley Cup tournament still pale in comparison with those for the NBA on ESPN/ABC and TNT (about a third to a fifth of the size of the ratings sparked by Kobe and Lebron). Nonetheless, they represent solid growth for the NHL and give it much to crow about, especially with its U.S. broadcast partners and league-wide corporate sponsors.

NBC is up 18 per cent over 2009, to an average first-round viewership of 1.430 million and a rating of 1.1. Versus has seen a 35% spike in viewers, with a first-round average of 595,000. That's the most the NHL has gleaned on U.S. cable television since ESPN/ESPN2 drove 608,000 in 2001. The combined average of 742,000 is the most since ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 scored 750,000 in 2000. In addition, the various U.S. regional rights holders who simulcast alongside the national carriers have hit record numbers in 2010.

In Canada, where hockey and hockey television are kings, the CBC's Hockey Night in Canada is up 49% over last year and is riding its highest numbers since 2004, when a Vancouver-Calgary first-round seven-game series caused a television buzz. TSN is up 89% (growing from 567K in 2009 to 1.07 M in 2010). RDS is going wild on the wave of the Montreal Canadiens.

The numbers are up in part because of the parity and the overall strength of the markets involved in the first and second rounds. They are also higher because of the new Personal People Meter (PPM) measurement system deployed for the first time last fall (which most analysts suggest is responsible for a bump of up to 20%).

Yet make no mistake about another big factor in these terrific television ratings for the NHL: Vancouver 2010.

In Canada in particular, the Olympic Winter Games were a storyline for NHL fans since the Canadian team's training camp last fall. There was massive media and fan interest in the unveiling of the Team Canada jersey in October and in the announcement of the roster over Christmas. It just built from there and created the largest television numbers -- for sports and overall -- during Vancouver 2010.

Featuring the best players in the world on their respective national teams, the Olympics engaged NHL aficionados, brought back some old fans and attracted new viewers. That's true in both Canada and the United States, the two countries which squared off in a memorable overtime finale won by Sidney Crosby February 28th.

More than two months later, the afterglow of Vancouver 2010 is a contributing factor in this great TV run the NHL is enjoying in both Canada and the U.S. during its Stanley Cup showcase. And that is something NHL commissioner Gary Bettman should consider as he ponders Sochi 2014.

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The NHL on television in 2009-'10: Canadian Bulls and Southern U.S. Bears

When more Canadians watch the NHL Draft Lottery on TSN (an average national audience of 556,000 this year) than Americans watch actual live game action during the regular season on Versus (averaging 297,000 in 2009-'10), it puts into perspective how the National Hockey League in general and NHL television in particular is a tale of two countries.

The NHL and the NHL on TV is hot in Canada. Not so much in the U.S., especially the further south you go.

Depending on how you look at it, Canadians are 10 to 20 times more likely to watch the NHL on TV than our American friends to the south. In a market 10 times the size of Canada, the NHL averages 1.6 million viewers on NBC during the regular season, less than the early game average of 1.8 million CBC drives through its Hockey Night in Canada franchise. Similarly, TSN (714,000) outperforms Versus (297,000) on cable, more than two-to-one in absolute terms and more than 20:1 per capita.

There's no better picture, however, of how different a proposition the NHL is in Canada compared to the U.S. than in the local and regional television ratings of the league's 30 clubs. Despite some good gains in the era of the NHL Winter Classic on NBC, the U.S. market is still a tough nut to crack for the NHL. If Canada is a rampaging bull market for NHL hockey -- which it is -- then the southern U.S. is a lame bear.

It's all mapped out in this week's Helijet Top Ten Bull Pen at http://www.thesportmarket.biz/ and www.Facebook.com/TheSportMarket (which lists the Top Ten, Middle Ten and Bottom Ten NHL television markets).

http://www.facebook.com/thesportmarket?ref=ts#!/photo.php?pid=3769385&id=280702824731

We'll let the listing of regional television audiences in the NHL speak for itself. What we will do is give you our Top Ten takes on where the NHL is at in television in Canada compared to the U.S.:

10 - The top four television markets in the NHL during the 2009-'10 regular season were Canada's four largest media markets: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. They all trumped larger U.S. designated market areas such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago;

9 - Six of the top nine regional television audiences in the NHL were held by Canada's six NHL franchises;

8 - The hottest U.S. NHL television market is Pittsburgh, home of Sidney Crosby and the defending champion Penguins. Fox Sportsnet Pittsburgh this year drove 93,000 households and 214,100 viewers per regular season game. Next in line are the fast-rising Chicago Blackhawks on Comcast Sportsnet and WGN TV (196,800 viewers per game) and the seemingly perennial Stanley Cup-contending Detroit Red Wings (186,500);

7 - There's parity on the ice but not in television ratings: the NHL's big three when it comes to regional television numbers -- Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks -- have larger audiences than the next 10 clubs combined (1,742,900 to 1,673,700);

6 - The Canadian regional television average audience is 383,167, which is more than two-and-a-half times the NHL average of 141,040 and almost five times the U.S. regional average of 80,508;

5 - The NHL's so-called Original Six franchises (Montreal, Toronto, Boston, New York, Detroit and Chicago) average 313,333 viewers per regional telecast. The last six NHL expansions average 34,583. The last six relocated franchises average 78,233 (but that drops to an average of 49,620 when you take out Calgary);

4 - The average Canadian NHL television market is more than 10 times stronger than the average U.S. sun belt TV market. And that's in absolute terms (383K to 34K);

3 - Canada's six NHL franchises draw more regional television viewers than all 24 U.S. clubs combined (2,299,000 cumulative in Canada compared to 1,932,200 aggregate in the U.S.). In fact, the top four Canadian teams (Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary) do that with 1,964,200 combined;

2 - It takes the NHL's bottom 11 television markets (cumulatively representing average viewership of 376,500 per game) to come close to matching the Vancouver Canucks' team average of 398,500 on Rogers Sportsnet Pacific. You have to add five more NHL clubs -- for a total of 16 or more than half of the league -- to rival the 650K plus regional averages of Toronto and Montreal (with the asterix that the Canadiens' regional rightsholder is RDS, a French-language national cable carrier);

1 - The Florida Panthers, playing before the smallest TV audiences in the NHL, have to log 49 regionally-televised games (1.2 seasons of home games or more than a half-season of total games) to match what the Toronto Maple Leafs or Montreal Canadiens each draw in ONE game.

When you rate the NHL's other bear TV markets (Atlanta, where it takes 36 Thrasher telecasts to equal one Habs game, or Tampa, Nashville or Raleigh, where it takes those teams 26 games to match the Leafs, or Phoenix, 25 games), it paints a picture that at some point the league will have to address: its southern U.S. plan in general and sunbelt strategy in particular.

When less people are watching your product on television than they are in-arena -- which is the case in Miami -- you have a fundamental problem. Not enough people care.

That's not the problem everywhere in the U.S., of course. It's not so much the issue in southern California, at least when the Ducks and Kings are winning. It's not a problem in the northern U.S. markets.  And, it's certainly not a challenge in Canada, where we drink the NHL on televison like we do beer.

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A sidelined Ovechkin hurts U.S. audiences but not necessarily overall North American numbers

There will be much hand-wringing over the Washington Capitals' stunning exit in the first-round of the National Hockey League's 2010 Stanley Cup tournament. Most of it will be in the Caps' front office, but a close second will be the disappointment shared by U.S. television rights holders Versus and NBC, both of which were loving their first-round playoff ratings and must have been salivating at the prospects of an eastern conference showdown between Alex Ovechkin and the Caps and Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That Ovechkin-Crosby is no longer in the cards will also cause some long faces at the NHL's corporate offices in New York. And that's understandable from those who bank on star marketing to build a larger footprint in the U.S.

Yet if it is job one of the commissioner's office to create aggregate value through optimal revenue generation and profits -- for itself and its member franchises -- there is no need for any heads to hang.

This is a tale of two countries. What in this case is bad for hockey in the U.S. is good for the game in Canada and not necessarily bad for the NHL.

The bottom line is that another series for the Montreal Canadiens will be good for the NHL and its partners; most notably its Canadian broadcast and corporate partners. At the micro level, it will sell more tickets and pump up higher box office totals (especially with at least two games at the 21,273-seat Bell Centre, the second-biggest building in the league with the highest-priced tickets of any of the remaining eight playoff clubs).

It will engage more fans and drive larger overall television audiences, largely because CBC and RDS will drive numbers north of 3.5 M and even 4 M per game in Canada alone. Those ratings will help make more money for the NHL's single-largest broadcast rights buyer; the CBC.

It's true that fewer Americans will be watching the conference semifinals and finals than if Ovechkin and the Caps were on the marquee. The net outcome with the Habs in and the Caps out is positive for the core business of the NHL, however, because so many more people will be watching in Canada.

The NHL might not see it that way, because it is rarely prone to recognizing that on a per capita basis, 10 to 20 times more Canadians watch NHL hockey than do their American counterparts. What it should see is that when your business partners make money, it's good for your business. And in this case, no one pays the NHL more money for rights than the CBC and its Hockey Night in Canada franchise.

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