NHL shows gains but NBA still wins 2010 television sweepstakes

Having game 5 of the NHL's 2010 Stanley Cup finals go up against game 2 of the NBA Finals Sunday night might have been unfortunate scheduling for both leagues and their fans but it did offer up a great chance to compare hockey apples with basketball oranges, so to speak, when it comes to television drawing power in North America.

Among the findings that stick with me are that NBA basketball is almost as popular among Americans as NHL hockey is to Canadians, at least when it comes to this spring's match-ups between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals and the Chicago Blackhawks and the Philadelphia Flyers in the Stanley Cup.

The head-to-head showdown showed that on a per capita basis, Canadians are this year 5.75 times as likely to watch Stanley Cup championship hockey than those living south of the border. It also demonstrated that Americans outwatch -- again per capita -- Canadians by 5.43 to 1 when it comes to NBA Finals basketball.

On this given Sunday, the NHL outscored the NBA on Canadian television by a 13:1 margin. In the U.S., however, the NBA beat the NHL by a ratio of 2.66:1 (approaching threefold). Hoops also won the continental battle by a margin of almost 60 per cent, with 16.0 million North Americans watching the Celtics beat the Lakers and 9.7 million tuning in to see Chicago move to within one game of its first Stanley Cup in 49 years (which the Blackhawks clinched in overtime tonight to win in six games).

The television scorecard Sunday looked like this...

                               NBA                              NHL
                               LA/Boston                                Chicago/Philadelphia
                               Game 2                                     Game 5


North America      16.0 million viewers         9.7 million viewers


United States        15.7 million viewers         5.9 million viewers
                              ESPN on ABC                             NBC

Canada                  291 thousand viewers     3.8 million viewers
                              TSN                                            CBC/RDS

The head-to-head comparison is particularly interesting in the U.S., where four of the top eight television markets in the country are directly engaged in the Stanley Cup and NBA Finals. This year's NHL and NBA championship series span the second-largest media market in the country, LA (5.7 million television households), #3 Chicago (3.5 million) and #4 Philadelphia (2.9 million), along with #8 Boston (2.4 million).

Sunday continued to show how heavily the NHL relies on the strength of its local markets when it comes to U.S. television ratings, with more than a third of those Americans tuning into Game 5 of the Stanley Cup final coming from either champion Chicago (where local market shares hit 40%) or Philly (almost 30%).

The New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls could theoretically drive larger combined local audiences if they found a way to return to the NBA Finals, but for ESPN on ABC, there is no stronger match-up in terms of national television interest than the NBA's two heritage brands, the Celtics and Lakers.

www.TheSportMarket.biz
The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca
Saturdays 9 a.m. to 12 noon PT
Facebook.com/TheSportMarket and Twitter.com/TheSportMarket

NHL needs destination television in the U.S. for its Stanley Cup showcase

darrenrovell1: R-A-T-I-N-G-S. Spelling Bee beats game 4 of Stanley Cup Final -- 4M to 3.1M viewers (From sport business reporter Darren Rovell of CNBC June 7th on Twitter.com comparing Saturday's Scripps national spelling competition on ABC with Friday's NHL championship game on cable carrier Versus).

The National Hockey League would be well-served by a simple goal when it sits down to negotiate its next U.S. broadcasting contracts, either with current rightsholders NBC and Versus or some other combination of incumbents, newcomers or returning partners.

The "One Goal" -- to borrow the simple marketing slogan of the Chicago Blackhawks -- should be to ensure its Stanley Cup finals are carried by one network, from start to finish. Its priority should be to deliver destination television to better serve its existing fans and help lure new ones.

As it stands, the NHL is alone among the major professional sports leagues in North America in relegating even one game in its ultimate championship series to cable television alone.

Granted, the environment is changing and cable juggernauts such as ESPN are outbidding networks on a variety of fronts -- including varsity sports -- and they do so on the strength of dual revenue streams (advertising and subscription fees) and the quality of their all-sports audience demographics.

Yet only CBS, FOX and NBC are in the discussion for the NFL's conference championships and the game's greatest showcase, the Super Bowl. FOX is the exclusive custodian of Major League Baseball's classic, the World Series. The ESPN on ABC simulcast platform is locked in and a winner with the NBA Finals.

The Stanley Cup, however, does not have one consistent U.S. television home. In the current 2010 slugfest, NBC claimed games 1, 5, 6 and 7, while Versus picked up games 2, 3 and 4. It's a sharing formula they've used throughout the existing NHL rightsholder agreement, not only in the Stanley Cup showcase but throughout the post-season.

It is not the right solution for the NHL in the U.S. market and for the Stanley Cup as the game's marquee event.

A stronger rights deal in 2012 with NBC, one which engaged the network throughout the Stanley Cup final, would make the most sense (and while you're at it, graduating from the ranks of pure revenue-sharing into rights fees would be a worthy side goal with the Peacock network).

Getting another major network to take ownership of the league's championship series would be the next best bet. Failing those options, having a cable network designated as the go-to carrier of all seven games would be better than the current on-again, off-again relationship in which Stanley Cup final games literally bounce back and forth between network television on NBC and second-tier cable on Versus.

It is true that -- despite the baton approach used by NBC and Versus in passing games back and forth -- the Stanley Cup in particular and the 2010 playoffs in general is delivering to the NHL its best U.S. audiences in almost 15 years. Progress has been made, with even Versus declaring record ratings (topped off by Philadelphia's overtime win in game 3; the most-watched program in the cable network's young history).

That's the point. The product can finally say it deserves better. Much like its overall economic success despite the financial basketcases it carries in the U.S. sunbelt, the NHL needs to ask what could be with an even better roster of American broadcast partners on even better terms.

The most important contract condition is simple: destination television on one network for its Stanley Cup. That way, the sport's centrepiece will never again be O-U-T-D-R-A-W-N by Spelling Bee.

www.TheSportMarket.biz
The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca
Saturdays, 9 a.m. to 12 noon PT
Facebook.com/TheSportMarket and Twitter.com/TheSportMarket  

With matchups like this, series sweeps are not what the leagues or their broadcast partners want

Seven-game championship series are always the cat's meow when it comes to driving fan interest and television audiences. But it's even more intriguing a proposition this year for the National Hockey League, the National Basketball Association and their U.S. broadcast partners.

That's why Claude Giroux's overtime goal in tonight's 4-3 win for the Philadelphia Flyers over the Chicago Blackhawks had to come as a relief for the NHL, Versus, NBC and anyone in all-sports television and radio who cares about hockey.

The clutch goal prevented the Blackhawks from taking a 3-0 stranglehold against the Flyers and likely reducing the length of this year's Stanley Cup final to five or even the minimum four games (which would have prevented it from gaining another second of air time on NBC).

The NHL and its broadcast partners are even more interested in a long series this year because the 2010 final can boast a direct local market engagement of almost 6.5 million television households. It pits the third-largest media market in the country (Chicago, with 3.5 million television households) against the fourth-largest (Philadelphia, with 2.95 million).

It's the best Stanley Cup showdown in terms of the Nielsen's ratings company's Designated Market Areas since 2003 when the New Jersey Devils and the Anaheim Ducks brought together the New York and Los Angeles DMAs and ranks third all-time in terms of television households (behind New Jersey/Anaheim in 2003 and New Jersey/Dallas in 2000).

Given that it showcases two American cities that actually care about hockey, it's the strongest U.S. hockey market match-up since Detroit swept Philadelphia in 1997 and -- if it lasts at least six games -- will drive the best American television ratings since the New York Rangers won the 1994 Stanley Cup in a seven-game thriller against the Vancouver Canucks.

Yet that's only part of the story. The Chicago-Philadelphia Stanley Cup final and the Los Angeles-Boston NBA final make this spring a high-water mark for sports television and radio, combining to make up one of the largest aggregate local market engagements in the history of the NHL and NBA championship series.

The 6.5 million TV households available to the NHL, Versus and NBC are joined by the more than 8 million households in LA and Boston that are being targeted by the NBA and ESPN on ABC. That's almost 15 million U.S. television households directly engaged with the Stanley Cup and NBA Finals and all of the sports television and radio news and talk shows that come along for the ride.

It might not be the biggest-ever local market combination in sheer overall capacity (Denver, New Jersey, LA and Philadelphia in 2001 and Detroit, Raleigh, LA and New Jersey in 2002 rated higher in terms of cumulative television households at north of 16 million each year). There's no denying, however, that this year's showdowns -- third overall in aggregate DMA size -- are anchored in a final four that includes two of the very best American hockey markets and arguably the two greatest big basketball markets in the U.S.

It's not just quantity this year, it's quality of market demographics for the NHL and NBA. Chicago-Philly for hockey and LA-Boston for hoops are dream television match-ups on both counts.

ESPN on ABC will bring the best-of-seven final between the NBA's two heritage brands -- the Lakers and Celtics -- to those strong local markets and to an interested national television audience. Meanwhile, the NHL is basking in arguably its best-ever U.S. hockey market match-up.

Now if only more Americans could find the mid-week Stanley Cup games on Versus.

www.TheSportMarket.biz
The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca
Saturdays 9 a.m. to 12 noon PT
Facebook.com/TheSportMarket and Twitter.com/TheSportMarket 

Vancouver 2010 a factor in strong television ratings for Stanley Cup playoffs

The parity that drove strong television ratings throughout the 2009-'10 National Hockey League regular season has found expression in the post-season, which included 49 games in the first round (with seven of eight series going at least six games).

Twelve overtime games helped produce great ratings for Versus and NBC south of the border and for TSN, RDS and CBC here in Canada.

The NHL numbers for round one of the 2010 Stanley Cup tournament still pale in comparison with those for the NBA on ESPN/ABC and TNT (about a third to a fifth of the size of the ratings sparked by Kobe and Lebron). Nonetheless, they represent solid growth for the NHL and give it much to crow about, especially with its U.S. broadcast partners and league-wide corporate sponsors.

NBC is up 18 per cent over 2009, to an average first-round viewership of 1.430 million and a rating of 1.1. Versus has seen a 35% spike in viewers, with a first-round average of 595,000. That's the most the NHL has gleaned on U.S. cable television since ESPN/ESPN2 drove 608,000 in 2001. The combined average of 742,000 is the most since ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 scored 750,000 in 2000. In addition, the various U.S. regional rights holders who simulcast alongside the national carriers have hit record numbers in 2010.

In Canada, where hockey and hockey television are kings, the CBC's Hockey Night in Canada is up 49% over last year and is riding its highest numbers since 2004, when a Vancouver-Calgary first-round seven-game series caused a television buzz. TSN is up 89% (growing from 567K in 2009 to 1.07 M in 2010). RDS is going wild on the wave of the Montreal Canadiens.

The numbers are up in part because of the parity and the overall strength of the markets involved in the first and second rounds. They are also higher because of the new Personal People Meter (PPM) measurement system deployed for the first time last fall (which most analysts suggest is responsible for a bump of up to 20%).

Yet make no mistake about another big factor in these terrific television ratings for the NHL: Vancouver 2010.

In Canada in particular, the Olympic Winter Games were a storyline for NHL fans since the Canadian team's training camp last fall. There was massive media and fan interest in the unveiling of the Team Canada jersey in October and in the announcement of the roster over Christmas. It just built from there and created the largest television numbers -- for sports and overall -- during Vancouver 2010.

Featuring the best players in the world on their respective national teams, the Olympics engaged NHL aficionados, brought back some old fans and attracted new viewers. That's true in both Canada and the United States, the two countries which squared off in a memorable overtime finale won by Sidney Crosby February 28th.

More than two months later, the afterglow of Vancouver 2010 is a contributing factor in this great TV run the NHL is enjoying in both Canada and the U.S. during its Stanley Cup showcase. And that is something NHL commissioner Gary Bettman should consider as he ponders Sochi 2014.

www.TheSportMarket.biz
The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca
Saturdays 9 a.m. to 12 noon PT
Facebook.com/TheSportMarket and Twitter.com/TheSportMarket

The NHL on television in 2009-'10: Canadian Bulls and Southern U.S. Bears

When more Canadians watch the NHL Draft Lottery on TSN (an average national audience of 556,000 this year) than Americans watch actual live game action during the regular season on Versus (averaging 297,000 in 2009-'10), it puts into perspective how the National Hockey League in general and NHL television in particular is a tale of two countries.

The NHL and the NHL on TV is hot in Canada. Not so much in the U.S., especially the further south you go.

Depending on how you look at it, Canadians are 10 to 20 times more likely to watch the NHL on TV than our American friends to the south. In a market 10 times the size of Canada, the NHL averages 1.6 million viewers on NBC during the regular season, less than the early game average of 1.8 million CBC drives through its Hockey Night in Canada franchise. Similarly, TSN (714,000) outperforms Versus (297,000) on cable, more than two-to-one in absolute terms and more than 20:1 per capita.

There's no better picture, however, of how different a proposition the NHL is in Canada compared to the U.S. than in the local and regional television ratings of the league's 30 clubs. Despite some good gains in the era of the NHL Winter Classic on NBC, the U.S. market is still a tough nut to crack for the NHL. If Canada is a rampaging bull market for NHL hockey -- which it is -- then the southern U.S. is a lame bear.

It's all mapped out in this week's Helijet Top Ten Bull Pen at http://www.thesportmarket.biz/ and www.Facebook.com/TheSportMarket (which lists the Top Ten, Middle Ten and Bottom Ten NHL television markets).

http://www.facebook.com/thesportmarket?ref=ts#!/photo.php?pid=3769385&id=280702824731

We'll let the listing of regional television audiences in the NHL speak for itself. What we will do is give you our Top Ten takes on where the NHL is at in television in Canada compared to the U.S.:

10 - The top four television markets in the NHL during the 2009-'10 regular season were Canada's four largest media markets: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. They all trumped larger U.S. designated market areas such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago;

9 - Six of the top nine regional television audiences in the NHL were held by Canada's six NHL franchises;

8 - The hottest U.S. NHL television market is Pittsburgh, home of Sidney Crosby and the defending champion Penguins. Fox Sportsnet Pittsburgh this year drove 93,000 households and 214,100 viewers per regular season game. Next in line are the fast-rising Chicago Blackhawks on Comcast Sportsnet and WGN TV (196,800 viewers per game) and the seemingly perennial Stanley Cup-contending Detroit Red Wings (186,500);

7 - There's parity on the ice but not in television ratings: the NHL's big three when it comes to regional television numbers -- Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks -- have larger audiences than the next 10 clubs combined (1,742,900 to 1,673,700);

6 - The Canadian regional television average audience is 383,167, which is more than two-and-a-half times the NHL average of 141,040 and almost five times the U.S. regional average of 80,508;

5 - The NHL's so-called Original Six franchises (Montreal, Toronto, Boston, New York, Detroit and Chicago) average 313,333 viewers per regional telecast. The last six NHL expansions average 34,583. The last six relocated franchises average 78,233 (but that drops to an average of 49,620 when you take out Calgary);

4 - The average Canadian NHL television market is more than 10 times stronger than the average U.S. sun belt TV market. And that's in absolute terms (383K to 34K);

3 - Canada's six NHL franchises draw more regional television viewers than all 24 U.S. clubs combined (2,299,000 cumulative in Canada compared to 1,932,200 aggregate in the U.S.). In fact, the top four Canadian teams (Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary) do that with 1,964,200 combined;

2 - It takes the NHL's bottom 11 television markets (cumulatively representing average viewership of 376,500 per game) to come close to matching the Vancouver Canucks' team average of 398,500 on Rogers Sportsnet Pacific. You have to add five more NHL clubs -- for a total of 16 or more than half of the league -- to rival the 650K plus regional averages of Toronto and Montreal (with the asterix that the Canadiens' regional rightsholder is RDS, a French-language national cable carrier);

1 - The Florida Panthers, playing before the smallest TV audiences in the NHL, have to log 49 regionally-televised games (1.2 seasons of home games or more than a half-season of total games) to match what the Toronto Maple Leafs or Montreal Canadiens each draw in ONE game.

When you rate the NHL's other bear TV markets (Atlanta, where it takes 36 Thrasher telecasts to equal one Habs game, or Tampa, Nashville or Raleigh, where it takes those teams 26 games to match the Leafs, or Phoenix, 25 games), it paints a picture that at some point the league will have to address: its southern U.S. plan in general and sunbelt strategy in particular.

When less people are watching your product on television than they are in-arena -- which is the case in Miami -- you have a fundamental problem. Not enough people care.

That's not the problem everywhere in the U.S., of course. It's not so much the issue in southern California, at least when the Ducks and Kings are winning. It's not a problem in the northern U.S. markets.  And, it's certainly not a challenge in Canada, where we drink the NHL on televison like we do beer.

www.TheSportMarket.biz
The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca
Saturdays, 9 a.m. to 12 noon PT
Facebook.com/TheSportMarket and Twitter.com/TheSportMarket

A sidelined Ovechkin hurts U.S. audiences but not necessarily overall North American numbers

There will be much hand-wringing over the Washington Capitals' stunning exit in the first-round of the National Hockey League's 2010 Stanley Cup tournament. Most of it will be in the Caps' front office, but a close second will be the disappointment shared by U.S. television rights holders Versus and NBC, both of which were loving their first-round playoff ratings and must have been salivating at the prospects of an eastern conference showdown between Alex Ovechkin and the Caps and Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That Ovechkin-Crosby is no longer in the cards will also cause some long faces at the NHL's corporate offices in New York. And that's understandable from those who bank on star marketing to build a larger footprint in the U.S.

Yet if it is job one of the commissioner's office to create aggregate value through optimal revenue generation and profits -- for itself and its member franchises -- there is no need for any heads to hang.

This is a tale of two countries. What in this case is bad for hockey in the U.S. is good for the game in Canada and not necessarily bad for the NHL.

The bottom line is that another series for the Montreal Canadiens will be good for the NHL and its partners; most notably its Canadian broadcast and corporate partners. At the micro level, it will sell more tickets and pump up higher box office totals (especially with at least two games at the 21,273-seat Bell Centre, the second-biggest building in the league with the highest-priced tickets of any of the remaining eight playoff clubs).

It will engage more fans and drive larger overall television audiences, largely because CBC and RDS will drive numbers north of 3.5 M and even 4 M per game in Canada alone. Those ratings will help make more money for the NHL's single-largest broadcast rights buyer; the CBC.

It's true that fewer Americans will be watching the conference semifinals and finals than if Ovechkin and the Caps were on the marquee. The net outcome with the Habs in and the Caps out is positive for the core business of the NHL, however, because so many more people will be watching in Canada.

The NHL might not see it that way, because it is rarely prone to recognizing that on a per capita basis, 10 to 20 times more Canadians watch NHL hockey than do their American counterparts. What it should see is that when your business partners make money, it's good for your business. And in this case, no one pays the NHL more money for rights than the CBC and its Hockey Night in Canada franchise.

www.TheSportMarket.biz
The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca
Saturdays 9 a.m. to 12 noon PT
Facebook.com/TheSportMarket and Twitter.com/TheSportMarket

Impact of Vancouver 2010 on U.S. television: Less watching TNT and FOX and more watching NBC

The NBA All-Star Game made the most of its venue opportunity and, with 108,713 at Cowboys Stadium last Sunday, set an all-time record for basketball game attendance.

The new $1.6 billion US stadium was as big a star in the proceedings as were Lebron James and Kobe Bryant. The buzz around the stadium and its capacity to set the attendance record heightened media coverage in the U.S. and sponsorship activation hype around the NBA's fan festival in Arlington, Texas.

Expect more of the Mark Cuban-inspired outdoor NBA All-Star games in 2013 and beyond at places like Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Reliant Stadium in Houston and University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Those are the positives. The downside for the 2010 NBA All-Star game was a 4.4 cable rating with 6.9 million viewers of the game on TNT in the U.S., a television audience decline of 15.4 percent from last year’s 5.2 rating and 7.6 million viewers.

Yet no one should look at that drop in ratings as a reflection of long-term concern for the NBA and its All-Star format. The equally-iconic Daytona 500 had an even larger drop of 16 per cent over last year on FOX.

TNT and FOX had less people watching their sports properties last weekend because NBC -- and its cable platforms -- had more. That's because NBC is carrying the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Winter Games in the U.S. and every four years, competing networks programming in February have to grin and bear the television magnet that is the Winter Olympics.

More than 152 million Americans have watched at least some part of Vancouver 2010 in the first week of the Games on NBC's networks; the most since the Tonya Harding-Nancy Kerrigan drama drew millions of non-sports fans to Lillehammer 1994. Last night's figure skating gold drew an average American audience of 24.8 million and a cumulative tally of 77 million viewers -- both well higher than Turin 2006.

The night before, NBC rode Shaun White's snowboarding gold to knock off American Idol, scoring 12 million more viewers than the FOX juggernaut, which typically rules Wednesday nights in the U.S. Last Friday's opening ceremonies kicked things off big time for NBC with an average audience of 32.6 million in the U.S.

NBC has done well and will continue to drive strong ratings around Vancouver 2010 because (a) they are happening in the North American time zone; (b) they are effectively cross-promoting their coverage across multiple platforms and on all three screens; (c) the economy is keeping more people at home in front of their televisions; (d) as is the cold winter weather throughout much of the U.S.; and, most important, (e) American athletes are hot, off to a great start and the U.S. team tops the medal podium at the midway mark of the Games.

Nothing drives interest and national television audiences -- especially for Americans -- like success.

TheSportMarket.biz
The Sport Market on TEAM 1040 and teamradio.ca
Saturdays, 9 a.m.-12 noon PT