The NHL on television in 2009-'10: Canadian Bulls and Southern U.S. Bears

When more Canadians watch the NHL Draft Lottery on TSN (an average national audience of 556,000 this year) than Americans watch actual live game action during the regular season on Versus (averaging 297,000 in 2009-'10), it puts into perspective how the National Hockey League in general and NHL television in particular is a tale of two countries.

The NHL and the NHL on TV is hot in Canada. Not so much in the U.S., especially the further south you go.

Depending on how you look at it, Canadians are 10 to 20 times more likely to watch the NHL on TV than our American friends to the south. In a market 10 times the size of Canada, the NHL averages 1.6 million viewers on NBC during the regular season, less than the early game average of 1.8 million CBC drives through its Hockey Night in Canada franchise. Similarly, TSN (714,000) outperforms Versus (297,000) on cable, more than two-to-one in absolute terms and more than 20:1 per capita.

There's no better picture, however, of how different a proposition the NHL is in Canada compared to the U.S. than in the local and regional television ratings of the league's 30 clubs. Despite some good gains in the era of the NHL Winter Classic on NBC, the U.S. market is still a tough nut to crack for the NHL. If Canada is a rampaging bull market for NHL hockey -- which it is -- then the southern U.S. is a lame bear.

It's all mapped out in this week's Helijet Top Ten Bull Pen at http://www.thesportmarket.biz/ and www.Facebook.com/TheSportMarket (which lists the Top Ten, Middle Ten and Bottom Ten NHL television markets).

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We'll let the listing of regional television audiences in the NHL speak for itself. What we will do is give you our Top Ten takes on where the NHL is at in television in Canada compared to the U.S.:

10 - The top four television markets in the NHL during the 2009-'10 regular season were Canada's four largest media markets: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. They all trumped larger U.S. designated market areas such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago;

9 - Six of the top nine regional television audiences in the NHL were held by Canada's six NHL franchises;

8 - The hottest U.S. NHL television market is Pittsburgh, home of Sidney Crosby and the defending champion Penguins. Fox Sportsnet Pittsburgh this year drove 93,000 households and 214,100 viewers per regular season game. Next in line are the fast-rising Chicago Blackhawks on Comcast Sportsnet and WGN TV (196,800 viewers per game) and the seemingly perennial Stanley Cup-contending Detroit Red Wings (186,500);

7 - There's parity on the ice but not in television ratings: the NHL's big three when it comes to regional television numbers -- Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks -- have larger audiences than the next 10 clubs combined (1,742,900 to 1,673,700);

6 - The Canadian regional television average audience is 383,167, which is more than two-and-a-half times the NHL average of 141,040 and almost five times the U.S. regional average of 80,508;

5 - The NHL's so-called Original Six franchises (Montreal, Toronto, Boston, New York, Detroit and Chicago) average 313,333 viewers per regional telecast. The last six NHL expansions average 34,583. The last six relocated franchises average 78,233 (but that drops to an average of 49,620 when you take out Calgary);

4 - The average Canadian NHL television market is more than 10 times stronger than the average U.S. sun belt TV market. And that's in absolute terms (383K to 34K);

3 - Canada's six NHL franchises draw more regional television viewers than all 24 U.S. clubs combined (2,299,000 cumulative in Canada compared to 1,932,200 aggregate in the U.S.). In fact, the top four Canadian teams (Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary) do that with 1,964,200 combined;

2 - It takes the NHL's bottom 11 television markets (cumulatively representing average viewership of 376,500 per game) to come close to matching the Vancouver Canucks' team average of 398,500 on Rogers Sportsnet Pacific. You have to add five more NHL clubs -- for a total of 16 or more than half of the league -- to rival the 650K plus regional averages of Toronto and Montreal (with the asterix that the Canadiens' regional rightsholder is RDS, a French-language national cable carrier);

1 - The Florida Panthers, playing before the smallest TV audiences in the NHL, have to log 49 regionally-televised games (1.2 seasons of home games or more than a half-season of total games) to match what the Toronto Maple Leafs or Montreal Canadiens each draw in ONE game.

When you rate the NHL's other bear TV markets (Atlanta, where it takes 36 Thrasher telecasts to equal one Habs game, or Tampa, Nashville or Raleigh, where it takes those teams 26 games to match the Leafs, or Phoenix, 25 games), it paints a picture that at some point the league will have to address: its southern U.S. plan in general and sunbelt strategy in particular.

When less people are watching your product on television than they are in-arena -- which is the case in Miami -- you have a fundamental problem. Not enough people care.

That's not the problem everywhere in the U.S., of course. It's not so much the issue in southern California, at least when the Ducks and Kings are winning. It's not a problem in the northern U.S. markets.  And, it's certainly not a challenge in Canada, where we drink the NHL on televison like we do beer.

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NHL's own Coyotes spin Slap Shot-like tale

Whether it's called Flight of the Phoenix, From the Ashes of Bankruptcy or simply Believe It or Not, the Phoenix Coyotes are the closest thing the National Hockey League has to a Hollywood script in its 2009-'10 season.

In fact, despite not featuring the Hanson brothers or anything close, the Coyotes invoke the cult movie storyline of the Charleston Chiefs of Slap Shot fame.

Barry Riz of TSN.ca channeled the 1977 flick, the most popular hockey movie of all time, in a blog Monday night as the Coyotes occupied -- albeit temporarily -- a share of first place in the western conference of the NHL.

Instead of the Federal League, it's the NHL...it's not Reggie Dunlap (Paul Newman), it's Shane Doan...Jobing.com Arena in place of War Memorial Arena...stories of relocating to southern Ontario (last summer) and now Winnipeg or Kansas City instead of Florida...instead of a new, aggressive team fronted by the Hanson brothers, it's a new, stubborn team fronted by head coach Dave Tippett.

What would be more unlikely: The Chiefs' league title in Slap Shot the movie in 1977 or the Coyotes winning the Stanley Cup in real life in 2010?

Two things for sure: 1. The Phoenix Coyotes are the NHL’s story of the year for their surprising on-ice performance and position near the top of the western conference. 2. They continue to be its off-ice dog in terms of ticket sales and sponsorship revenues and hence, its most troubling sport business story for the third or fourth year in a row.

With a franchise record 98 points, the Coyotes are fourth overall among the 30 teams in the NHL and tied for second in the western conference – just one point behind the Chicago Blackhawks and knotted with the San Jose Sharks.

They are making the most of a season which they began in bankruptcy protection before being bought and taken over by the NHL itself in the Bettman-Balsillie-Moyes love triangle and sport business soap opera of last summer.

Yet despite being a lock to make the playoffs for the first time in seven years, the Coyotes are playing dead at the box office, despite impressive walk-up sales this month by spring break visitors from Vancouver and transplanted Chicagoans.

Phoenix is dead last among NHL teams in terms of ticket revenues earned per game. It is almost certainly also last in sponsorship revenues and tied for last in local television audiences. It is in the bottom five in the league in merchandising.

Going into this weekend, the Coyotes are averaging just north of $425,000 US per game at the box office. That's $125 K less per game than the next weakest NHL ticket machine, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Even perennial losers such as the New York Islanders -- in danger of moving out of an outdated arena and perhaps out of New York altogether -- and the Atlanta Thrashers -- out of the playoffs and in and out of court in a lawsuit among its owners -- make at least $225 K more every night out than the Coyotes. That's $9 million a year and change.

The Coyotes need an entire season to make as much box office revenue as the Vancouver Canucks do in a quarter-season Ice Pak of 11 games. Conversely, the Toronto Maple Leafs need only eight dates at the Air Canada Centre to outperform a 41-game regular season of Phoenix home games.

The Maple Leafs are the opposite of the Coyotes. Poor on the ice. Solid at the box office and in every category of off-ice hockey business: sponsorships, television revenues and merchandising.

Unless they reach the third round of the playoffs, the Coyotes will still lose at least $20 million US this year. That's a third of the losses they suffered last year but it's still nowhere near long-term sustainable.

Considering that the Coyotes have more points than any Canadian team, even the Northwest Division-leading Canucks, the only question NHL commissioner Bettman should be asking and imagining is what the Coyotes' sport business performance -- ticket sales, sponsorship sales, television and merchandising -- would be in a Canadian market such as Winnipeg or Southern Ontario or in even any northern U.S. market.

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