Improbable Stanley Cup playoff run allows Montreal Canadiens' centennial to resonate

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: the most important part of the business of sport is the business of winning. It's certainly the most persuasive part.

Winning is the best marketing. It's all about substance and cliches such as walking the walk and talking the talk. If business success in sport is one part product and one part marketing, the product is by far the bigger part.

That's why those who make the Montreal Canadiens the best-marketed franchise in Canada and arguably the best in the National Hockey League can thank their player roster for validating the 100th anniversary festivities in which the oldest hockey club in the world has invested so much of their resources and our attention.

This year's unexpected playoff run -- to the fifth game of the National Hockey League's eastern conference finals -- has given substance to the centennial celebrations that have become the club's staple industry the past 18 months; if not the past five years.

No amount of clever marketing can replace the inspirational impact of winning on the ice.

In this case, the Montreal Canadiens have done everything imaginable to mark the 100-year milestone with a sense of thoughtfulness, history and class: by retiring a series of sweater numbers in the five years leading to the 2008-'09 centennial; using last year to showcase and market a cross-section of the club's retro jerseys dating back to their first game in 1909; producing a 100th anniversary DVD; and culminating everything with the actual anniversary game in November of 2009, which was an unprecedented presentation of pomp and circumstance in Canadian -- if not North American -- sport.

Yet the 2008-'09 centennial season missed one important piece: a winning season...a bridge to that long and storied history... a sense of connection to the lineage represented best by Maurice Richard, Jean Beliveau and Guy Lafleur...and of course the illustrious tradition of 24 Stanley Cups.

After finishing first in the eastern conference and reaching the second round of the 2008 Stanley Cup playoffs (before losing to the same Philadelphia Flyers), the Habs faltered badly during the Centennial season, finishing eighth and enduring the embarassment of a four-game sweep at the hands of their arch rivals, the Boston Bruins, in the first round. The very glory years that were being celebrated in 2008-'09 seemed so long ago.

These past two months in 2010, however, the players and the team ignited what the entire Centennial was designed to provide; pride of association, memories of yesteryear and what it felt like to be in the hunt for the trophy Canadian sports fans cherish most.

It's been 17 years since the Canadiens last reached the Stanley Cup finals and won. It could be another 17 years or more before they do so again. But Montreal's run in what Stanley Cup-winning head coach Mike Babcock calls a "marathon of hope" was a final touch this year to the 100th anniversary celebrations that was better than anyone in their front office could have scripted.

It has not only given the organization and its fans a sense of hope and optimism but a restored sense of identity for a team that, for the first time in its great history, has gone this long between championships.

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Quebec Flyers, BC Blackhawks and Canada Sharks each have their merits, but only Montreal Canadiens register economic impact in Canada

The San Jose Sharks have more Canadians on their roster than any of the four teams remaining in the National Hockey League's 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs.


The Chicago Blackhawks have the biggest bevy of British Columbians while the Philadelphia Flyers boast the most Quebeckers.

Yet despite having fewer Canadians than the Canada Sharks and fewer Quebecois than the Quebec Flyers, only the Montreal Canadiens have a macro economic impact on their city, their province and, by extension, their country.

Nine unanswered goals in a 2-0 series lead might suggest the Flyers will limit the number of home games left in Montreal, but the Canadiens will drive box office revenues of more than $5.5 million per game night at the Bell Centre after earning $25 million in ticket receipts from their seven-game series miracles over the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins.

Add a half-million dollars in concession and merchandise sales per game and you have a winfall not only for the Habs, but for their official suppliers, licensees and the federal and provincial tax agencies.

Each televised game fills restaurants, pubs and brasseries in Montreal; each home game moreso. The beer flows and wings fly at sports bars throughout Quebec and across Canada, expanding the economic impact beyond the confines of the second largest city in the country.

The buzz is also economically palpable for CBC and RDS, who are generally doubling their audience numbers on the strength of having a Canadian team in the conference finals. When a combined average audience of more than six million Canadians watch Hockey Night in Canada and RDS -- almost one of every five Canadians -- it's good for those broadcast companies. Radio rights holders glean similar upside.

More eyeballs and ears following a Canadian team in the final four also means -- at least theoretically -- more returns on investment for domestic advertising sponsors such as Scotiabank, Tim Hortons and Golf Town.

So whatever your take is on what makes a local franchise take on national team status or whether the Montreal Canadiens have any right to your spring allegiance, make no mistake that they are the only team left registering an impact on the Canadian economy.

The Sharks, Flyers and the Blackhawks have varying degrees of fan equity in Canada, but love them or hate them, only the success of the Canadiens on and off the ice makes a tangible, financial difference for Canadians, Canadian broadcasters and other Canadian companies.

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The NHL on television in 2009-'10: Canadian Bulls and Southern U.S. Bears

When more Canadians watch the NHL Draft Lottery on TSN (an average national audience of 556,000 this year) than Americans watch actual live game action during the regular season on Versus (averaging 297,000 in 2009-'10), it puts into perspective how the National Hockey League in general and NHL television in particular is a tale of two countries.

The NHL and the NHL on TV is hot in Canada. Not so much in the U.S., especially the further south you go.

Depending on how you look at it, Canadians are 10 to 20 times more likely to watch the NHL on TV than our American friends to the south. In a market 10 times the size of Canada, the NHL averages 1.6 million viewers on NBC during the regular season, less than the early game average of 1.8 million CBC drives through its Hockey Night in Canada franchise. Similarly, TSN (714,000) outperforms Versus (297,000) on cable, more than two-to-one in absolute terms and more than 20:1 per capita.

There's no better picture, however, of how different a proposition the NHL is in Canada compared to the U.S. than in the local and regional television ratings of the league's 30 clubs. Despite some good gains in the era of the NHL Winter Classic on NBC, the U.S. market is still a tough nut to crack for the NHL. If Canada is a rampaging bull market for NHL hockey -- which it is -- then the southern U.S. is a lame bear.

It's all mapped out in this week's Helijet Top Ten Bull Pen at http://www.thesportmarket.biz/ and www.Facebook.com/TheSportMarket (which lists the Top Ten, Middle Ten and Bottom Ten NHL television markets).

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We'll let the listing of regional television audiences in the NHL speak for itself. What we will do is give you our Top Ten takes on where the NHL is at in television in Canada compared to the U.S.:

10 - The top four television markets in the NHL during the 2009-'10 regular season were Canada's four largest media markets: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. They all trumped larger U.S. designated market areas such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago;

9 - Six of the top nine regional television audiences in the NHL were held by Canada's six NHL franchises;

8 - The hottest U.S. NHL television market is Pittsburgh, home of Sidney Crosby and the defending champion Penguins. Fox Sportsnet Pittsburgh this year drove 93,000 households and 214,100 viewers per regular season game. Next in line are the fast-rising Chicago Blackhawks on Comcast Sportsnet and WGN TV (196,800 viewers per game) and the seemingly perennial Stanley Cup-contending Detroit Red Wings (186,500);

7 - There's parity on the ice but not in television ratings: the NHL's big three when it comes to regional television numbers -- Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks -- have larger audiences than the next 10 clubs combined (1,742,900 to 1,673,700);

6 - The Canadian regional television average audience is 383,167, which is more than two-and-a-half times the NHL average of 141,040 and almost five times the U.S. regional average of 80,508;

5 - The NHL's so-called Original Six franchises (Montreal, Toronto, Boston, New York, Detroit and Chicago) average 313,333 viewers per regional telecast. The last six NHL expansions average 34,583. The last six relocated franchises average 78,233 (but that drops to an average of 49,620 when you take out Calgary);

4 - The average Canadian NHL television market is more than 10 times stronger than the average U.S. sun belt TV market. And that's in absolute terms (383K to 34K);

3 - Canada's six NHL franchises draw more regional television viewers than all 24 U.S. clubs combined (2,299,000 cumulative in Canada compared to 1,932,200 aggregate in the U.S.). In fact, the top four Canadian teams (Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary) do that with 1,964,200 combined;

2 - It takes the NHL's bottom 11 television markets (cumulatively representing average viewership of 376,500 per game) to come close to matching the Vancouver Canucks' team average of 398,500 on Rogers Sportsnet Pacific. You have to add five more NHL clubs -- for a total of 16 or more than half of the league -- to rival the 650K plus regional averages of Toronto and Montreal (with the asterix that the Canadiens' regional rightsholder is RDS, a French-language national cable carrier);

1 - The Florida Panthers, playing before the smallest TV audiences in the NHL, have to log 49 regionally-televised games (1.2 seasons of home games or more than a half-season of total games) to match what the Toronto Maple Leafs or Montreal Canadiens each draw in ONE game.

When you rate the NHL's other bear TV markets (Atlanta, where it takes 36 Thrasher telecasts to equal one Habs game, or Tampa, Nashville or Raleigh, where it takes those teams 26 games to match the Leafs, or Phoenix, 25 games), it paints a picture that at some point the league will have to address: its southern U.S. plan in general and sunbelt strategy in particular.

When less people are watching your product on television than they are in-arena -- which is the case in Miami -- you have a fundamental problem. Not enough people care.

That's not the problem everywhere in the U.S., of course. It's not so much the issue in southern California, at least when the Ducks and Kings are winning. It's not a problem in the northern U.S. markets.  And, it's certainly not a challenge in Canada, where we drink the NHL on televison like we do beer.

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Halak puts an exclamation mark on one of the best opening rounds in Stanley Cup history

The opening round of the National Hockey League's 2010 Stanley Cup championships produced a series of notable storylines, including:

• entertaining hockey, combining both a potent offensive display of 5.9 goals per game (the highest since 1996) and some superb goaltending, most notably that of Jaroslav Halak, who stood on his head to lead the Montreal Canadiens past Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals; 
• tight hockey, with a total of 49 games in the first round (the most since 1995) and 12 of them overtime results (the most since 2001). There wasn't a single four-game sweep, only one five-game series, five six-gamers and two that went the distance to seventh games;
• unpredictable hockey, with road teams winning 27 of the 49 games and four series going to the lower-seeded teams.

Yet with all due respect to the resurgent Detroit Red Wings, the resilient Boston Bruins and the surprising Philadelphia Flyers, the single biggest storyline of the conference quarter-finals is Halak and the Habs. The Slovak Olympian goaltender is one of the major reasons why this first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs has to go down as one of the best in modern history.

This is the first time an eighth-seed has knocked off a top-seed after falling behind three games to one. But it's more than No. 8 ousting No. 1 within a conference, it's actually No. 16 in the playoffs eliminating No. 1 overall.

That's why Halak has already earned himself a special place in the 100-year history of the Canadiens (and in the hearts of their fans). He stole the last three games for Montreal and his performance in game six at the Bell Centre was one for the ages, invoking comparisons with rookie Ken Dryden and the 1971 Stanley Cup champions and rookie Patrick Roy and the 1986 champion Canadiens.

Dryden and Roy made history because they won three and four series, respectively. Halak is only one-quarter of the way to the peak of Mount Stanley. What he has done, however, is what Dryden did 39 years ago: beat the top-ranked team in the Stanley Cup tournament. And even with Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins on the horizon, it's a start that's intriguing for Canadiens boosters and, even moreso, for Halak's agent, Allan Walsh.

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A sidelined Ovechkin hurts U.S. audiences but not necessarily overall North American numbers

There will be much hand-wringing over the Washington Capitals' stunning exit in the first-round of the National Hockey League's 2010 Stanley Cup tournament. Most of it will be in the Caps' front office, but a close second will be the disappointment shared by U.S. television rights holders Versus and NBC, both of which were loving their first-round playoff ratings and must have been salivating at the prospects of an eastern conference showdown between Alex Ovechkin and the Caps and Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That Ovechkin-Crosby is no longer in the cards will also cause some long faces at the NHL's corporate offices in New York. And that's understandable from those who bank on star marketing to build a larger footprint in the U.S.

Yet if it is job one of the commissioner's office to create aggregate value through optimal revenue generation and profits -- for itself and its member franchises -- there is no need for any heads to hang.

This is a tale of two countries. What in this case is bad for hockey in the U.S. is good for the game in Canada and not necessarily bad for the NHL.

The bottom line is that another series for the Montreal Canadiens will be good for the NHL and its partners; most notably its Canadian broadcast and corporate partners. At the micro level, it will sell more tickets and pump up higher box office totals (especially with at least two games at the 21,273-seat Bell Centre, the second-biggest building in the league with the highest-priced tickets of any of the remaining eight playoff clubs).

It will engage more fans and drive larger overall television audiences, largely because CBC and RDS will drive numbers north of 3.5 M and even 4 M per game in Canada alone. Those ratings will help make more money for the NHL's single-largest broadcast rights buyer; the CBC.

It's true that fewer Americans will be watching the conference semifinals and finals than if Ovechkin and the Caps were on the marquee. The net outcome with the Habs in and the Caps out is positive for the core business of the NHL, however, because so many more people will be watching in Canada.

The NHL might not see it that way, because it is rarely prone to recognizing that on a per capita basis, 10 to 20 times more Canadians watch NHL hockey than do their American counterparts. What it should see is that when your business partners make money, it's good for your business. And in this case, no one pays the NHL more money for rights than the CBC and its Hockey Night in Canada franchise.

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Salary cap helps raise the roof on NHL attendance

Attendance in the National Hockey League has grown each year since the lockout of 2004-'05, reaching an all-time high of a league-wide per game average of 16,458 in the 2009-'10 regular season which ended last Sunday.

Many would point to raucous big buildings such as the United Center in Chicago (21,356) and the Bell Centre in Montreal (21,273) as driving the league-wide average and they'd be at least partially right. Some would suggest new rules and an emerging crop of young superstars a la Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin have peaked fan interest and they'd also be right. Still others would point to shootouts and three-point games and how they pump up team point totals and compress the point differentials between contenders and pretenders.

Yet if the numbers have grown consistently since the lockout, isn't it also true that parity -- pure and simple --has gone a long way to keeping the turnstiles moving? What better way to sell tickets and drive attendance than on the promise of hope: with no clear Stanley Cup favourite, more fans from more markets can dream longer about their own team's prospects of making the grade.

The numbers would suggest the bull market for NHL tickets is the result of the perfect storm of all of these factors, but none more important than team balance.

Check this out: almost half of the 30 teams in the NHL (13) are drawing more than 18,000 fans per game...more than a third (11) of the league's teams are selling out every game...five of Canada’s six franchises are at 100 per cent capacity and the sixth is not far off at 98.8 per cent...six northern U.S. markets are playing to full houses.

Most impressive is that four-fifths of the NHL is north of the magic number most people in the business covet as a sign of franchise strength; with 24 of 30 teams at or above 80% arena capacity.

Despite the bull market for NHL tickets north of the border and in northern U.S. markets, the league clearly still has its work cut out for it in the southern U.S, where seven of its eight lowest-drawing teams are currently located...five of them in sun belt markets.

That includes Phoenix. Despite a fourth-place finish in the NHL's overall standings last week, the Coyotes closed the regular season dead last in attendance, averaging a reported 11,989 at Jobing.com Arena.

Yet Phoenix and the NHL's other weak links would be even weaker were it not for the elephant in the room; a salary cap implemented in 2005 and one which has to be given at least some props for helping drive these record levels of game attendance and fan interest.

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